Waiting game for Cristobal to detach from the Bay of Campeche and Mexico.

Late Tuesday night (June 2, 2020) Tropical Storm Cristobal was slightly better organized with 45-knot winds measured by aircraft recon.

The weekend forecast is most critical as a large and likely re-organized tropical storm or hurricane Cristobal could be approaching the Gulf coast from New Orleans west to Houston by late Sunday.

The ensemble guidance (ECMWF Ensembles 18z from https://weathermodels.com) show the spaghetti solutions from the individual members. So, for the next 2-3 days, we will watch land interaction and the general behavior of the gyre within which Cristobal is embedded.

HWRF 18z possible location of Tropical Storm Cristobal by late Sunday. The storm may be a hurricane by then, too.

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