The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1499
The ledger, through October 26
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.39°F at day 1 and 4.59°F at day 7, over 632,834 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 26–October 26, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.43 | 2.39 | 69,844 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.61 | 69,712 |
| Day 3 | 3.00 | 2.87 | 69,174 |
| Day 4 | 3.32 | 3.19 | 68,853 |
| Day 5 | 3.82 | 3.65 | 69,006 |
| Day 6 | 4.30 | 4.12 | 69,008 |
| Day 7 | 4.71 | 4.59 | 55,736 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.94 | 34,620 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.37 °F | of 23,181 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 35,605 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.87 °F | of 34,927 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.65 °F | of 34,761 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.59 °F | of 34,548 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.44 °F | of 10,343 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.83 °F | of 9,181 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.5 °F | of 7,973 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.61 °F | of 6,753 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 34,239 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3 °F | of 34,247 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.82 °F | of 34,245 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.71 °F | of 21,188 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.6 °F | of 18,137 September 26–October 26, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1499 · laid 2026-10-26T00:25:23Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 96991e4eb29905db6f0ed2e085e79160c582b3b2043a66148d90814245977a25
- Machine
- JSON