The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1494
The ledger, through October 25
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.40°F at day 1 and 4.58°F at day 7, over 623,981 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 25–October 25, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.43 | 2.40 | 69,530 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.62 | 69,254 |
| Day 3 | 3.01 | 2.88 | 69,086 |
| Day 4 | 3.33 | 3.19 | 68,769 |
| Day 5 | 3.82 | 3.65 | 68,926 |
| Day 6 | 4.30 | 4.11 | 69,078 |
| Day 7 | 4.69 | 4.58 | 56,106 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.92 | 34,579 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.38 °F | of 21,842 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 35,335 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.88 °F | of 34,883 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.65 °F | of 34,721 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.58 °F | of 34,728 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.46 °F | of 9,749 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.86 °F | of 8,585 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.54 °F | of 7,383 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.65 °F | of 6,170 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 34,195 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.01 °F | of 34,203 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.82 °F | of 34,205 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.69 °F | of 21,378 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.61 °F | of 17,096 September 25–October 25, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1494 · laid 2026-10-25T00:25:23Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 437cdd47d66e4b8a33640e7618917df797e839d0926751415f84f70dcb04df82
- Machine
- JSON