The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1485
The ledger, through October 24
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.40°F at day 1 and 4.54°F at day 7, over 616,343 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 24–October 24, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.43 | 2.40 | 69,211 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.62 | 69,318 |
| Day 3 | 3.01 | 2.88 | 69,150 |
| Day 4 | 3.32 | 3.19 | 68,833 |
| Day 5 | 3.81 | 3.64 | 69,138 |
| Day 6 | 4.28 | 4.10 | 69,592 |
| Day 7 | 4.65 | 4.54 | 56,158 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.91 | 34,611 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 20,496 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 34,984 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.88 °F | of 34,915 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.64 °F | of 34,827 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.54 °F | of 34,760 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.48 °F | of 9,151 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.88 °F | of 7,991 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.56 °F | of 6,793 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.71 °F | of 5,655 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 34,227 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.01 °F | of 34,235 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.81 °F | of 34,311 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.65 °F | of 21,398 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.61 °F | of 16,050 September 24–October 24, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1485 · laid 2026-10-24T00:25:20Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 5c72eca70ea8f2c065d5273de481afaa9f0a99588f7e1c007e52cdaf30674687
- Machine
- JSON