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Milepost
1480

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Friday, 23 October 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1479

Minneapolis's forecast for Sunday has moved 7°F colder

63°F in the 20261021T06:00Z run, 56°F in the 20261023T00:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 10°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Sunday, October 25 at 03Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 63.2°F in the 20261021T06:00Z cycle to 56.0°F in the 20261023T00:00Z — a move of -7.2°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Sunday at 03Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-7.2 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 3
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
10.1 °F normal 7.2 °F
current run
Milepost
1479 · laid 2026-10-23T10:25:18Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261023T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
50d4a3c7f0516a70590edb4a1e835f7358b88177af6b127153758f3360a36854
Machine
JSON