The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1474
The ledger, through October 23
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.39°F at day 1 and 4.51°F at day 7, over 609,017 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 23–October 23, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.41 | 2.39 | 69,251 |
| Day 2 | 2.67 | 2.61 | 69,358 |
| Day 3 | 3.00 | 2.86 | 69,190 |
| Day 4 | 3.32 | 3.18 | 69,023 |
| Day 5 | 3.79 | 3.62 | 69,626 |
| Day 6 | 4.24 | 4.08 | 69,632 |
| Day 7 | 4.62 | 4.51 | 56,265 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.86 | 34,630 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 19,156 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 35,004 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.86 °F | of 34,935 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.62 °F | of 35,071 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.51 °F | of 34,780 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.48 °F | of 8,554 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.89 °F | of 7,399 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.59 °F | of 6,208 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.82 °F | of 4,994 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.41 °F | of 34,247 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3 °F | of 34,255 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.79 °F | of 34,555 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.62 °F | of 21,485 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.61 °F | of 15,007 September 23–October 23, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1474 · laid 2026-10-23T00:25:24Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 83ebb888c97d114faf717b48a5b0f9f7019914ec08cace20eeada5f05a2f373d
- Machine
- JSON