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Milepost
1469

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Thursday, 22 October 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1469

Minneapolis's forecast for Friday has moved 6°F colder

47°F in the 20261020T12:00Z run, 41°F in the 20261022T06:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 2 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 21°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Friday, October 30 at 06Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 47.2°F in the 20261020T12:00Z cycle to 41.0°F in the 20261022T06:00Z — a move of -6.2°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Friday at 06Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-6.2 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 2
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
21.5 °F normal 6.2 °F
current run
Milepost
1469 · laid 2026-10-22T16:25:22Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261022T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
92e6c54b9b7d55094447578c8c4a16043eec4406bc071539332cfeec906432bb
Machine
JSON