HII The Ledger
MILEPOST 1462
Guidance has run 4.0°F warm at HII for a month
The mean signed residual across 964 pairs is +4.00°F, against +0.15°F averaged over all 83 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At HII over September 22–October 22, 2026, it lands +4.00°F from the report, across 964 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 83 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at HII Forecast Network verification ledger |
4 °F | normal 0.1 °F · 1 of 83 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1462 · laid 2026-10-22T06:25:18Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 7ea208e7688a7f1ae978477d5d8cc99405f15e021f52752fa407e30a90e771b3
- Machine
- JSON