The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1460
The ledger, through October 22
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.37°F at day 1 and 4.46°F at day 7, over 602,075 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 22–October 22, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.40 | 2.37 | 69,299 |
| Day 2 | 2.66 | 2.59 | 69,406 |
| Day 3 | 2.99 | 2.85 | 69,388 |
| Day 4 | 3.30 | 3.16 | 69,517 |
| Day 5 | 3.74 | 3.59 | 69,674 |
| Day 6 | 4.19 | 4.03 | 69,755 |
| Day 7 | 4.60 | 4.46 | 56,599 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.79 | 34,654 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 17,822 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.37 °F | of 35,028 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.85 °F | of 35,034 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.59 °F | of 35,095 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.46 °F | of 34,804 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.47 °F | of 7,961 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.86 °F | of 6,811 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.58 °F | of 5,694 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.77 °F | of 4,407 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 34,271 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.99 °F | of 34,354 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.74 °F | of 34,579 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.6 °F | of 21,795 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.6 °F | of 13,967 September 22–October 22, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1460 · laid 2026-10-22T00:25:19Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- bf8d42446cc168897321a88a45ddaeaf64d206fb5de83e0bce183dd20dd7f633
- Machine
- JSON