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Milepost
1456

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 21 October 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1456

Minneapolis's forecast for Sunday has moved 6°F colder

60°F in the 20261019T12:00Z run, 54°F in the 20261021T06:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 4 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 14°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Sunday, October 25 at 21Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 60.4°F in the 20261019T12:00Z cycle to 54.3°F in the 20261021T06:00Z — a move of -6.1°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Sunday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-6.1 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 4
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
13.6 °F normal 6.1 °F
current run
Milepost
1456 · laid 2026-10-21T16:25:23Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261021T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
2682accc8759b2d6bc49bf6e6fcd362358063de558f0be74376fedbdeee93d16
Machine
JSON