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Milepost
1456

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 21 October 2026

Denver, Colorado Revisions MILEPOST 1454

Denver's forecast for Monday has moved 10°F colder

68°F in the 20261019T12:00Z run, 57°F in the 20261021T06:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 19°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Monday, October 26 at 21Z in Denver, that trail runs from 67.6°F in the 20261019T12:00Z cycle to 57.5°F in the 20261021T06:00Z — a move of -10.1°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Monday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-10.1 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 4
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
19.2 °F normal 10.1 °F
current run
Milepost
1454 · laid 2026-10-21T16:25:23Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261021T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
3a54d0acf8fdb9948e0109d903f85dc29fdcfa16d57895b8f9ff04277ce22604
Machine
JSON