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Milepost
1453

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 21 October 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1453

Minneapolis's forecast for Sunday has moved 8°F colder

61°F in the 20261019T06:00Z run, 52°F in the 20261021T00:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 3 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 16°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Sunday, October 25 at 21Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 60.8°F in the 20261019T06:00Z cycle to 52.5°F in the 20261021T00:00Z — a move of -8.3°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Sunday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-8.3 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 3
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
16 °F normal 8.3 °F
current run
Milepost
1453 · laid 2026-10-21T10:25:17Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261021T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
d6801dfb1a2128a7b3f031321eb599b849e50a397f596ac83ff6b4b735480b05
Machine
JSON