The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1451
The ledger, through October 21
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.36°F at day 1 and 4.43°F at day 7, over 595,123 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 21–October 21, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.39 | 2.36 | 69,307 |
| Day 2 | 2.65 | 2.58 | 69,558 |
| Day 3 | 2.97 | 2.83 | 69,840 |
| Day 4 | 3.27 | 3.14 | 69,523 |
| Day 5 | 3.71 | 3.56 | 69,754 |
| Day 6 | 4.17 | 4.01 | 70,059 |
| Day 7 | 4.59 | 4.43 | 56,827 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.73 | 34,657 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 16,500 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 35,032 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.83 °F | of 35,259 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.56 °F | of 35,095 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.43 °F | of 34,804 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.47 °F | of 7,371 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.85 °F | of 6,230 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.6 °F | of 5,035 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.82 °F | of 3,825 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 34,275 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.97 °F | of 34,581 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.71 °F | of 34,659 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.59 °F | of 22,023 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.58 °F | of 12,937 September 21–October 21, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1451 · laid 2026-10-21T00:25:18Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- c1a0f11103e10b1e3ae73ee0942c255c75e7091c1366bb2296fb340788e59125
- Machine
- JSON