The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1440
The ledger, through October 20
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.33°F at day 1 and 4.41°F at day 7, over 588,214 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 20–October 20, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.38 | 2.33 | 69,453 |
| Day 2 | 2.65 | 2.56 | 69,984 |
| Day 3 | 2.96 | 2.82 | 69,830 |
| Day 4 | 3.26 | 3.13 | 69,592 |
| Day 5 | 3.71 | 3.55 | 70,042 |
| Day 6 | 4.15 | 4.00 | 70,271 |
| Day 7 | 4.57 | 4.41 | 56,893 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.73 | 34,649 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.38 °F | of 15,187 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.33 °F | of 35,105 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.82 °F | of 35,251 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.55 °F | of 35,087 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.41 °F | of 34,796 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 6,787 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.86 °F | of 5,727 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.67 °F | of 4,460 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.83 °F | of 3,249 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.38 °F | of 34,348 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.96 °F | of 34,579 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.71 °F | of 34,955 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.57 °F | of 22,097 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.56 °F | of 11,917 September 20–October 20, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1440 · laid 2026-10-20T00:25:17Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- c6043939997788edf5f7e85e6e20082ec1c4f3fd9e82421f36520efe27e3c630
- Machine
- JSON