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Milepost
1437

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Monday, 19 October 2026

Dallas, Texas Revisions MILEPOST 1437

Dallas's forecast for Tuesday has moved 7°F warmer

68°F in the 20261017T18:00Z run, 75°F in the 20261019T00:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 5 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 5°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Tuesday, October 20 at 01Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 68.0°F in the 20261017T18:00Z cycle to 74.9°F in the 20261019T00:00Z — a move of +6.9°F across 8 runs.

The change is larger than the run's own 10th-to-90th percentile spread — the guidance did not merely narrow, it moved off its previous position.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Tuesday at 01Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
6.9 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 5
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
4.6 °F normal 6.9 °F
current run
Milepost
1437 · laid 2026-10-19T14:25:21Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261019T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
65d9189ac938d749bf5d9ad83d28939f83e465085a9bec44a94f9fbb66f91f75
Machine
JSON