CWC The Ledger
MILEPOST 1433
Guidance has run 4.1°F warm at CWC for a month
The mean signed residual across 819 pairs is +4.14°F, against +0.10°F averaged over all 82 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At CWC over September 19–October 19, 2026, it lands +4.14°F from the report, across 819 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 82 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at CWC Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.14 °F | normal 0.1 °F · 1 of 82 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1433 · laid 2026-10-19T09:25:18Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 17e3da1649c459bb80828698dfbf8a557417dac0b76282a1c67a87be7160ceb7
- Machine
- JSON