The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1432
The ledger, through October 19
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.33°F at day 1 and 4.45°F at day 7, over 569,798 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 19–October 19, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.38 | 2.33 | 68,739 |
| Day 2 | 2.65 | 2.56 | 68,833 |
| Day 3 | 2.98 | 2.83 | 68,905 |
| Day 4 | 3.29 | 3.15 | 68,885 |
| Day 5 | 3.72 | 3.57 | 69,110 |
| Day 6 | 4.15 | 3.99 | 69,497 |
| Day 7 | 4.63 | 4.45 | 56,244 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.79 | 34,073 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 13,350 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.33 °F | of 34,748 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.83 °F | of 34,675 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.57 °F | of 34,511 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.45 °F | of 34,220 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 6,050 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.91 °F | of 4,774 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.85 °F | of 3,576 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.98 °F | of 2,365 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.38 °F | of 33,991 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.98 °F | of 34,230 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.72 °F | of 34,599 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.63 °F | of 22,024 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.52 °F | of 10,520 September 19–October 19, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1432 · laid 2026-10-19T00:25:21Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- f951838e9fc6cfa3d58b839050dd49534dafab47637da12add6c79bdc1a78dd6
- Machine
- JSON