CWC The Ledger
MILEPOST 1428
Guidance has run 5.1°F warm at CWC for a month
The mean signed residual across 587 pairs is +5.12°F, against +0.09°F averaged over all 82 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At CWC over September 18–October 18, 2026, it lands +5.12°F from the report, across 587 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 82 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at CWC Forecast Network verification ledger |
5.12 °F | normal 0.1 °F · 1 of 82 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1428 · laid 2026-10-18T21:25:20Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 717a86ea9b1012fc6e813e007d7cd275f2733aab9b0ef4c4510e48fe6d92e9a3
- Machine
- JSON