NBG The Ledger
MILEPOST 1421
Guidance has run 3.0°F warm at NBG for a month
The mean signed residual across 7,406 pairs is +3.02°F, against +0.01°F averaged over all 81 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At NBG over September 18–October 18, 2026, it lands +3.02°F from the report, across 7,406 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 81 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at NBG Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.02 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 81 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1421 · laid 2026-10-18T09:25:16Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- fdd430c194b301c1b2c804031dbd16470b30b4665f3cf479b167e8d41d633784
- Machine
- JSON