The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1417
The ledger, through October 18
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.32°F at day 1 and 4.43°F at day 7, over 562,135 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 18–October 18, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.37 | 2.32 | 68,680 |
| Day 2 | 2.65 | 2.56 | 68,998 |
| Day 3 | 2.99 | 2.83 | 69,145 |
| Day 4 | 3.29 | 3.16 | 68,903 |
| Day 5 | 3.73 | 3.57 | 69,426 |
| Day 6 | 4.15 | 4.01 | 69,656 |
| Day 7 | 4.58 | 4.43 | 56,116 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.75 | 34,055 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.32 °F | of 12,018 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.32 °F | of 34,716 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.83 °F | of 34,643 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.57 °F | of 34,479 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.43 °F | of 34,114 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 5,384 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.97 °F | of 4,182 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.95 °F | of 2,984 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
5.31 °F | of 1,773 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.37 °F | of 33,964 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.99 °F | of 34,502 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.73 °F | of 34,947 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.58 °F | of 22,002 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.5 °F | of 9,482 September 18–October 18, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1417 · laid 2026-10-18T00:25:17Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 7e92febe5cdad886c017093c0d99501a86eaf95f2ab01198ba6aaad07a1c17d2
- Machine
- JSON