Phoenix, Arizona Revisions
MILEPOST 1414
Phoenix's forecast for Thursday has moved 7°F warmer
74°F in the 20261015T12:00Z run, 81°F in the 20261017T06:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 3 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 17°F.
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, October 22 at 00Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 73.8°F in the 20261015T12:00Z cycle to 80.6°F in the 20261017T06:00Z — a move of +6.8°F across 8 runs.
The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Thursday at 00Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
6.8 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 3 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
16.9 °F | normal 6.8 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1414 · laid 2026-10-17T16:25:18Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20261017T06:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Source
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Digest
- e9b7930c5546146241e4879ae16e23186b102132965b80d753e11a9a84132f19
- Machine
- JSON