Phoenix, Arizona Revisions
MILEPOST 1411
Phoenix's forecast for Thursday has moved 8°F warmer
73°F in the 20261015T06:00Z run, 81°F in the 20261017T00:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 4 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 16°F.
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, October 22 at 00Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 73.4°F in the 20261015T06:00Z cycle to 81.5°F in the 20261017T00:00Z — a move of +8.0°F across 8 runs.
The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Thursday at 00Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
8 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 4 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
15.8 °F | normal 8.0 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1411 · laid 2026-10-17T10:25:18Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20261017T00:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Source
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Digest
- c13d95324d6a869ef8ac8764bf7a60151c074f09b0f1504a22dbbc9feed2c0ef
- Machine
- JSON