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Milepost
1411

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Saturday, 17 October 2026

Salt Lake City, Utah Revisions MILEPOST 1409

Salt Lake City's forecast for Thursday has moved 13°F warmer

50°F in the 20261015T06:00Z run, 63°F in the 20261017T00:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 17°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, October 22 at 18Z in Salt Lake City, that trail runs from 50.0°F in the 20261015T06:00Z cycle to 63.4°F in the 20261017T00:00Z — a move of +13.4°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Thursday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
13.4 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 4
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
16.8 °F normal 13.4 °F
current run
Milepost
1409 · laid 2026-10-17T10:25:18Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261017T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
871877c77a647e1e3907d24c26bc98013bd8ec5bde3b2fb360676cd7b45e3532
Machine
JSON