The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1406
The ledger, through October 17
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.32°F at day 1 and 4.34°F at day 7, over 554,877 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 17–October 17, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.37 | 2.32 | 68,897 |
| Day 2 | 2.64 | 2.56 | 69,288 |
| Day 3 | 2.96 | 2.82 | 69,213 |
| Day 4 | 3.26 | 3.13 | 69,271 |
| Day 5 | 3.70 | 3.54 | 69,643 |
| Day 6 | 4.08 | 3.95 | 69,648 |
| Day 7 | 4.49 | 4.34 | 56,109 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.66 | 34,051 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 10,672 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.32 °F | of 34,712 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.82 °F | of 34,639 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.54 °F | of 34,475 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.34 °F | of 34,110 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.41 °F | of 4,785 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.01 °F | of 3,580 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.86 °F | of 2,382 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
5 °F | of 1,175 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.37 °F | of 34,185 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.96 °F | of 34,574 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.7 °F | of 35,168 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.49 °F | of 21,999 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.48 °F | of 8,436 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1406 · laid 2026-10-17T00:25:16Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 6c46819e49125f56db2644cd3c8ccd0fcb2dce7000404de7c9a542c6577c5205
- Machine
- JSON