The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1397
The ledger, through October 16
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.31°F at day 1 and 4.32°F at day 7, over 547,748 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 16–October 16, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.36 | 2.31 | 69,204 |
| Day 2 | 2.63 | 2.55 | 69,374 |
| Day 3 | 2.94 | 2.80 | 69,599 |
| Day 4 | 3.23 | 3.10 | 69,494 |
| Day 5 | 3.65 | 3.51 | 69,652 |
| Day 6 | 4.05 | 3.92 | 69,660 |
| Day 7 | 4.45 | 4.32 | 56,106 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.62 | 34,069 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 9,361 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.31 °F | of 34,716 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.8 °F | of 34,643 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.51 °F | of 34,479 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.32 °F | of 34,115 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.42 °F | of 4,201 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.98 °F | of 2,996 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.93 °F | of 1,798 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
5.45 °F | of 594 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 34,488 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.94 °F | of 34,956 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.65 °F | of 35,173 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.45 °F | of 21,991 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.5 °F | of 7,412 September 16–October 16, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1397 · laid 2026-10-16T00:25:18Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- da8f1b3a19c741189ed06e77d4ce5f4b8e046f48ef8820c7470ae88ef1823dc1
- Machine
- JSON