Edition 2026-10-15 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1396

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Thursday, 15 October 2026

Dallas, Texas Revisions MILEPOST 1396

Dallas's forecast for Tuesday has moved 9°F colder

66°F in the 20261013T12:00Z run, 57°F in the 20261015T06:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 9 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 11°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Tuesday, October 20 at 12Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 66.2°F in the 20261013T12:00Z cycle to 57.3°F in the 20261015T06:00Z — a move of -8.9°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Tuesday at 12Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-8.9 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 9
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
10.7 °F normal 8.9 °F
current run
Milepost
1396 · laid 2026-10-15T16:25:17Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261015T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
e6c34c0c5b7e408d045d5ab0ca8959c96f1ecb73c70d50c96e0181e43bfcd623
Machine
JSON