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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 139

November 10, 2023 Weekend Ahead

Quiet weather weekend

What the month did

November 2023 was the 22nd-warmest November in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 44.2°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 43.0°F (+1.3°F).

November 2023 was the 12th-driest November in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 1.4in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.3in (-0.9in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

The upper-level pattern for the next 10-days from ECMWF HRES shows generally ridging over the central Lower 48 shutting off the availability of cold air to drop out of Canada onto the Midwest and Great Lakes. The trough off the West Coast next week now retrogrades westward too far to tap into Alaskan cold air which is instead replaced with Pacific warmth. The subtropical jet takes over with 140-150 knot streak into southern California. by next Thursday. Hello El Niño!

Above Normal Temperatures overall for the next 2-weeks+ across much of Canada and the Lower 48. The Canadian Arctic is very warm and will contribute considerably to the global mean anomaly.

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Milepost
139 · laid 2023-11-10T22:15:44.699000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/november-10-2023-weekend-ahead
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82344252df38ee0c4692f0170e35b98205cd3e5b2c06796078dee64f339ba28e
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