The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1385
The ledger, through October 15
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.30°F at day 1 and 4.30°F at day 7, over 553,427 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 15–October 15, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.35 | 2.30 | 70,566 |
| Day 2 | 2.61 | 2.53 | 70,734 |
| Day 3 | 2.91 | 2.78 | 71,107 |
| Day 4 | 3.21 | 3.08 | 70,782 |
| Day 5 | 3.64 | 3.49 | 70,940 |
| Day 6 | 4.04 | 3.91 | 70,948 |
| Day 7 | 4.43 | 4.30 | 57,227 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.61 | 34,710 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.31 °F | of 8,550 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.3 °F | of 35,360 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.78 °F | of 35,287 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.49 °F | of 35,123 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.3 °F | of 34,759 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 3,835 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3 °F | of 2,704 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.98 °F | of 1,507 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
5.58 °F | of 302 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.35 °F | of 35,206 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.91 °F | of 35,820 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.64 °F | of 35,817 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.43 °F | of 22,468 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.51 °F | of 6,749 September 15–October 15, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1385 · laid 2026-10-15T00:25:17Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 0dc4516edd03d0bfe586a5d8c5bbfcec1245022234ac177d49fe79e1f2e79994
- Machine
- JSON