The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1376
The ledger, through October 14
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.29°F at day 1 and 4.27°F at day 7, over 546,807 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 14–October 14, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.34 | 2.29 | 70,658 |
| Day 2 | 2.60 | 2.52 | 71,280 |
| Day 3 | 2.90 | 2.77 | 71,046 |
| Day 4 | 3.20 | 3.07 | 70,798 |
| Day 5 | 3.62 | 3.48 | 70,956 |
| Day 6 | 4.03 | 3.89 | 71,267 |
| Day 7 | 4.40 | 4.27 | 57,243 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.61 | 34,710 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.34 °F | of 7,188 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 35,368 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.77 °F | of 35,218 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.48 °F | of 35,131 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.27 °F | of 34,767 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.41 °F | of 3,228 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.96 °F | of 2,098 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.79 °F | of 907 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.34 °F | of 35,290 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.9 °F | of 35,828 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.62 °F | of 35,825 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.4 °F | of 22,476 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.55 °F | of 5,690 September 14–October 14, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1376 · laid 2026-10-14T00:25:15Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- bb26a408b316677cf75f0fd79e190db5bb39702aa03b4ca244b38cad1b314bce
- Machine
- JSON