Phoenix, Arizona Revisions
MILEPOST 1375
Phoenix's forecast for Friday has moved 8°F colder
80°F in the 20261011T18:00Z run, 72°F in the 20261013T12:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 6 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 14°F.
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Friday, October 23 at 00Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 80.5°F in the 20261011T18:00Z cycle to 72.3°F in the 20261013T12:00Z — a move of -8.2°F across 8 runs.
The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Friday at 00Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
-8.2 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 6 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
14.2 °F | normal 8.2 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1375 · laid 2026-10-13T22:25:18Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20261013T12:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Source
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Digest
- 5a1a63f2edf47e1b4159c92dd26df1256013e4b1acd3fd1d4a98facc6b574b77
- Machine
- JSON