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Milepost
1375

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Tuesday, 13 October 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1373

Minneapolis's forecast for Thursday has moved 10°F warmer

51°F in the 20261011T18:00Z run, 60°F in the 20261013T12:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 19°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, October 22 at 12Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 50.7°F in the 20261011T18:00Z cycle to 60.4°F in the 20261013T12:00Z — a move of +9.8°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Thursday at 12Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
9.8 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 6
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
18.9 °F normal 9.8 °F
current run
Milepost
1373 · laid 2026-10-13T22:25:18Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261013T12:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
9596014fd2ffee3503f718bb338b3ec204e5d44fa079b20b93dcf69f2500e835
Machine
JSON