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Milepost
1372

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Tuesday, 13 October 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1371

Minneapolis's forecast for Thursday has moved 11°F warmer

51°F in the 20261011T12:00Z run, 62°F in the 20261013T06:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 18°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, October 22 at 12Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 51.4°F in the 20261011T12:00Z cycle to 62.0°F in the 20261013T06:00Z — a move of +10.5°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Thursday at 12Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
10.5 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 9
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
18.3 °F normal 10.5 °F
current run
Milepost
1371 · laid 2026-10-13T16:25:17Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261013T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
dd6d99eecc7eca39363806cf6a38fb8ef465e5b33ac502a8492d8d67a77d0217
Machine
JSON