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Milepost
1380

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 14 October 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1370

Minneapolis's forecast for Thursday has moved 9°F warmer

50°F in the 20261011T06:00Z run, 59°F in the 20261013T00:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 19°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, October 22 at 12Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 49.6°F in the 20261011T06:00Z cycle to 59.0°F in the 20261013T00:00Z — a move of +9.4°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Thursday at 12Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
9.4 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 10
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
19.2 °F normal 9.4 °F
current run
Milepost
1370 · laid 2026-10-13T10:25:14Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261013T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
90fe2724ca6b89ef9acbceacb509c06d0c61bf4201da672138e08b9c710b7ae6
Machine
JSON