The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1368
The ledger, through October 13
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.27°F at day 1 and 4.25°F at day 7, over 529,187 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 13–October 13, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.32 | 2.27 | 69,972 |
| Day 2 | 2.58 | 2.49 | 70,064 |
| Day 3 | 2.89 | 2.76 | 69,830 |
| Day 4 | 3.19 | 3.06 | 69,733 |
| Day 5 | 3.61 | 3.46 | 70,043 |
| Day 6 | 4.00 | 3.87 | 70,051 |
| Day 7 | 4.37 | 4.25 | 56,255 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.55 | 34,097 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 5,311 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.27 °F | of 34,760 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.76 °F | of 34,610 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.46 °F | of 34,523 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.25 °F | of 34,159 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 2,396 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.89 °F | of 1,194 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.32 °F | of 35,212 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.89 °F | of 35,220 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.61 °F | of 35,520 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.37 °F | of 22,096 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.58 °F | of 4,265 September 13–October 13, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1368 · laid 2026-10-13T00:25:16Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- a9e5f61e6975dd14484e905a0c9934fe44a7b7e70a698831ab196b6bb687e6ed
- Machine
- JSON