Phoenix, Arizona Revisions
MILEPOST 1365
Phoenix's forecast for Thursday has moved 11°F colder
86°F in the 20261010T12:00Z run, 76°F in the 20261012T06:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 11 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 17°F.
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, October 22 at 00Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 86.1°F in the 20261010T12:00Z cycle to 75.6°F in the 20261012T06:00Z — a move of -10.6°F across 8 runs.
The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Thursday at 00Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
-10.6 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 11 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
16.6 °F | normal 10.6 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1365 · laid 2026-10-12T16:25:15Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20261012T06:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Source
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Digest
- 3daf9109a2d3e8d356165f69a5904ecea92ea72c07ed7928002fc773d4e5a426
- Machine
- JSON