The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1360
The ledger, through October 12
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.27°F at day 1 and 4.23°F at day 7, over 534,745 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 12–October 12, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.32 | 2.27 | 71,172 |
| Day 2 | 2.57 | 2.49 | 71,264 |
| Day 3 | 2.88 | 2.75 | 71,030 |
| Day 4 | 3.18 | 3.05 | 71,083 |
| Day 5 | 3.59 | 3.44 | 71,243 |
| Day 6 | 3.98 | 3.86 | 71,251 |
| Day 7 | 4.34 | 4.23 | 57,230 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.55 | 34,697 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.42 °F | of 4,487 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.27 °F | of 35,360 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.75 °F | of 35,210 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.44 °F | of 35,123 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.23 °F | of 34,759 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.38 °F | of 2,022 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.94 °F | of 897 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.32 °F | of 35,812 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.88 °F | of 35,820 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.59 °F | of 36,120 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.34 °F | of 22,471 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.64 °F | of 3,591 September 12–October 12, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1360 · laid 2026-10-12T00:25:17Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 9951a9a8946e2f30a78672c8ff5f38f387be7512f37a052f60d7b5b788582b26
- Machine
- JSON