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Milepost
1356

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Sunday, 11 October 2026

Denver, Colorado Revisions MILEPOST 1354

Denver's forecast for Wednesday has moved 16°F colder

69°F in the 20261009T06:00Z run, 53°F in the 20261011T00:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 17°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Wednesday, October 14 at 21Z in Denver, that trail runs from 69.1°F in the 20261009T06:00Z cycle to 53.4°F in the 20261011T00:00Z — a move of -15.6°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Wednesday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-15.6 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 9
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
17.2 °F normal 15.6 °F
current run
Milepost
1354 · laid 2026-10-11T10:25:15Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261011T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
fee6c26e226e1e7ace29908a6b1657d01fe17c2c2fbe746445dbb39c5b4449a9
Machine
JSON