The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1351
The ledger, through October 11
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.26°F at day 1 and 4.21°F at day 7, over 529,336 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 11–October 11, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.31 | 2.26 | 71,188 |
| Day 2 | 2.56 | 2.49 | 71,280 |
| Day 3 | 2.87 | 2.74 | 71,346 |
| Day 4 | 3.17 | 3.04 | 71,099 |
| Day 5 | 3.57 | 3.43 | 71,259 |
| Day 6 | 3.95 | 3.83 | 71,267 |
| Day 7 | 4.33 | 4.21 | 57,244 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.54 | 34,705 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.41 °F | of 3,140 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.26 °F | of 35,368 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.74 °F | of 35,218 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.43 °F | of 35,131 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.21 °F | of 34,767 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.31 °F | of 1,422 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.87 °F | of 298 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.31 °F | of 35,820 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.87 °F | of 36,128 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.57 °F | of 36,128 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.33 °F | of 22,477 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.71 °F | of 2,542 September 11–October 11, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1351 · laid 2026-10-11T00:25:14Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- e91dd147b985465c4d1d2620dcba9d0252dcb88f5ad6a34a2f07b66d2e61bfcd
- Machine
- JSON