The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1341
The ledger, through October 10
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.27°F at day 1 and 4.22°F at day 7, over 513,718 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 10–October 10, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.31 | 2.27 | 70,064 |
| Day 2 | 2.56 | 2.49 | 70,301 |
| Day 3 | 2.86 | 2.73 | 70,066 |
| Day 4 | 3.14 | 3.01 | 69,819 |
| Day 5 | 3.52 | 3.38 | 69,979 |
| Day 6 | 3.94 | 3.80 | 69,988 |
| Day 7 | 4.36 | 4.22 | 56,279 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.55 | 34,231 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.32 °F | of 1,270 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.27 °F | of 34,728 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.73 °F | of 34,578 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.38 °F | of 34,491 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.22 °F | of 34,207 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 600 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.31 °F | of 35,336 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.86 °F | of 35,488 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.52 °F | of 35,488 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.36 °F | of 22,072 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.66 °F | of 1,121 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1341 · laid 2026-10-10T00:25:13Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- da30862ab97d0519cc321fc670abd886ca526d263042c7c0b57735f44a460777
- Machine
- JSON