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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 134

November 3, 2023 Weekend Outlook

Warming temperatures into weekend

What the month did

November 2023 was the 22nd-warmest November in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 44.2°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 43.0°F (+1.3°F).

November 2023 was the 12th-driest November in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 1.4in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.3in (-0.9in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

The Arctic airmass has broken its grip on the Lower 48 except for North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Warm Pacific origin air will continue to surge across the Rockies with moderate atmospheric river events dumping considerable (mostly) rain across the drought affected Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will continue to warm across the board leading to a really nice weekend for vast majority of Americans.

Another favorite parameter from weather models is “ dynamic tropopause ” potential temperature. This is a way of showing the upper-level features mainly at the jet stream level and how they are evolving and interacting.

For subscribers

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Milepost
134 · laid 2023-11-03T21:44:42.791000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/november-3-2023-weekend-outlook
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