The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1329
The ledger, through October 9
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.26°F at day 1 and 4.21°F at day 7, over 515,659 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 9–October 9, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.31 | 2.26 | 70,758 |
| Day 2 | 2.56 | 2.48 | 70,845 |
| Day 3 | 2.84 | 2.72 | 70,610 |
| Day 4 | 3.12 | 3.00 | 70,364 |
| Day 5 | 3.51 | 3.37 | 70,523 |
| Day 6 | 3.93 | 3.79 | 70,534 |
| Day 7 | 4.35 | 4.21 | 56,680 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.54 | 34,815 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 227 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.26 °F | of 35,000 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.72 °F | of 34,850 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.37 °F | of 34,763 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.21 °F | of 34,484 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.92 °F | of 152 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.31 °F | of 35,758 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.84 °F | of 35,760 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.51 °F | of 35,760 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.35 °F | of 22,196 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.18 °F | of 151 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1329 · laid 2026-10-09T00:25:13Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 8f4530259330100e932c0116582aa2c4e734e5d2e56e192f9480648941493979
- Machine
- JSON