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Milepost
1313

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 7 October 2026

Dallas, Texas Revisions MILEPOST 1312

Dallas's forecast for Saturday has moved 11°F colder

72°F in the 20261006T00:00Z run, 61°F in the 20261006T18:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 10 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 24°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Saturday, October 17 at 12Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 71.5°F in the 20261006T00:00Z cycle to 60.6°F in the 20261006T18:00Z — a move of -10.9°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Saturday at 12Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-10.9 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 10
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
24.2 °F normal 10.9 °F
current run
Milepost
1312 · laid 2026-10-07T04:25:11Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261006T18:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
492ecd9426af2dbdea632a9d99d9fc6b1966f72763d3cfd76733431d8b3561d7
Machine
JSON