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Milepost
1296

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Monday, 5 October 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1296

Minneapolis's forecast for Sunday has moved 6°F warmer

66°F in the 20261003T12:00Z run, 72°F in the 20261005T06:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 2 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 25°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Sunday, October 11 at 18Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 65.6°F in the 20261003T12:00Z cycle to 71.8°F in the 20261005T06:00Z — a move of +6.2°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Sunday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
6.2 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 2
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
24.9 °F normal 6.2 °F
current run
Milepost
1296 · laid 2026-10-05T16:25:13Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261005T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
61701296ceddfdca6b2faa9843ed0ee24ada8c24d929c92a53473018744fdcb2
Machine
JSON