Edition 2026-10-04 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1290

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Sunday, 4 October 2026

Dallas, Texas Revisions MILEPOST 1290

Dallas's forecast for Sunday has moved 8°F colder

76°F in the 20261003T00:00Z run, 67°F in the 20261004T06:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 8 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 13°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Sunday, October 11 at 09Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 75.8°F in the 20261003T00:00Z cycle to 67.4°F in the 20261004T06:00Z — a move of -8.5°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Sunday at 09Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-8.5 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 8
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
12.7 °F normal 8.5 °F
current run
Milepost
1290 · laid 2026-10-04T16:25:12Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261004T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
3cff4ae2fb1416012eacabc9ce98d1a26908ddd2541841adca0f2ddf9540cf3e
Machine
JSON