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Milepost
1290

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Sunday, 4 October 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1289

Minneapolis's forecast for Sunday has moved 12°F warmer

61°F in the 20261002T12:00Z run, 73°F in the 20261004T06:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 20°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Sunday, October 11 at 18Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 60.9°F in the 20261002T12:00Z cycle to 72.7°F in the 20261004T06:00Z — a move of +11.8°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Sunday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
11.8 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 8
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
20 °F normal 11.8 °F
current run
Milepost
1289 · laid 2026-10-04T16:25:12Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261004T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
0b7f2e15ffa3b1f4f5027ecc79c00fc6ff9a258635fc0180d7979a4ada6f0d72
Machine
JSON