Phoenix, Arizona Revisions
MILEPOST 1288
Phoenix's forecast for Wednesday has moved 10°F colder
90°F in the 20261002T12:00Z run, 80°F in the 20261004T00:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 10 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 20°F.
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Wednesday, October 14 at 00Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 90.0°F in the 20261002T12:00Z cycle to 79.9°F in the 20261004T00:00Z — a move of -10.1°F across 8 runs.
The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Wednesday at 00Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
-10.1 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 10 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
20.2 °F | normal 10.1 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1288 · laid 2026-10-04T10:25:12Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20261004T00:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Source
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Digest
- fb68858f1714d74d03eb6e2803e9f220dbfcfee95fe87ba95ed9f77c316394c8
- Machine
- JSON