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Milepost
1288

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Sunday, 4 October 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1287

Minneapolis's forecast for Sunday has moved 13°F warmer

60°F in the 20261002T06:00Z run, 73°F in the 20261004T00:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 10 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 24°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Sunday, October 11 at 18Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 60.2°F in the 20261002T06:00Z cycle to 73.2°F in the 20261004T00:00Z — a move of +13.1°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Sunday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
13.1 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 10
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
23.7 °F normal 13.1 °F
current run
Milepost
1287 · laid 2026-10-04T10:25:12Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261004T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
4f64515a958b152bc375952874d4cf8b0050395213a78a3142737804d0a9ffe5
Machine
JSON