Phoenix, Arizona Revisions
MILEPOST 1285
Phoenix's forecast for Tuesday has moved 13°F colder
94°F in the 20261002T00:00Z run, 81°F in the 20261003T18:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 10 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 21°F.
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Tuesday, October 13 at 00Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 94.1°F in the 20261002T00:00Z cycle to 81.5°F in the 20261003T18:00Z — a move of -12.7°F across 8 runs.
The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Tuesday at 00Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
-12.7 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 10 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
20.6 °F | normal 12.7 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1285 · laid 2026-10-04T04:25:13Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20261003T18:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Source
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Digest
- d61291da7b7171bd287f7b5cb5f404bf7eabc804227b24a49117b77ebdffc04c
- Machine
- JSON