Edition 2026-10-03 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1276

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Saturday, 3 October 2026

Dallas, Texas Revisions MILEPOST 1276

Dallas's forecast for Saturday has moved 7°F colder

78°F in the 20261001T00:00Z run, 70°F in the 20261002T18:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 7 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 12°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Saturday, October 10 at 06Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 77.7°F in the 20261001T00:00Z cycle to 70.4°F in the 20261002T18:00Z — a move of -7.3°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Saturday at 06Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-7.3 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 7
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
12 °F normal 7.3 °F
current run
Milepost
1276 · laid 2026-10-03T04:25:12Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261002T18:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
3cee2d88c20c248edc3d235c26bd37a380197d03db831d50347b1ec2a77fa3e5
Machine
JSON