The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1273
The ledger, through October 3
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.99°F at day 7, over 513,930 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 3–October 3, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.29 | 2.23 | 70,389 |
| Day 2 | 2.53 | 2.45 | 70,401 |
| Day 3 | 2.79 | 2.67 | 70,241 |
| Day 4 | 3.04 | 2.93 | 70,371 |
| Day 5 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 70,305 |
| Day 6 | 3.78 | 3.64 | 70,392 |
| Day 7 | 4.14 | 3.99 | 56,897 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.27 | 34,934 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.23 °F | of 34,891 September 3–October 3, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.67 °F | of 34,741 September 3–October 3, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.25 °F | of 34,805 September 3–October 3, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.99 °F | of 34,824 September 3–October 3, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 35,498 September 3–October 3, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.79 °F | of 35,500 September 3–October 3, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.4 °F | of 35,500 September 3–October 3, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.14 °F | of 22,073 September 3–October 3, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1273 · laid 2026-10-03T00:25:13Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 39e6c58ba7099f8f643f29573969965e3789b7dcbb5878b91a9cddf409c4e876
- Machine
- JSON